The Brexit Chronicles

I Predict A Riot

Published on March the 29th, 2019. 06.00.

This should have been the day the UK proudly left the EU. Instead this date could herald a day of national humiliation, or even violence.

This afternoon the government will yet again try to force a part of Theresa May's reviled BRINO Withdrawal Agreement through, flagrantly breaching Parliamentary procedure in doing so. The government mouthpiece, the BBC, claims, "They will vote on the withdrawal agreement on the Irish "backstop", divorce bill and citizens' rights.

But it will not amount to a third "meaningful vote" on the deal, as it will not include a vote on the UK's future relationship with the EU." - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47740158 Which of course is a yet another bare-faced Beeb lie. The government's rationale is that by separating the 'deal' from the Political Declaration, the poison pill can be broken into smaller pieces, treated as a new proposal and so be resubmitted to the House of Commons to swallow in stages. However, splitting the WA in that way only reproduces the same document which was defeated by 230 votes the first time it was proposed on January the 15th of this year. To vote on it in that form again is clearly a breach of the Bercow rule, as well as being all but certain to fail once more.

So what is May trying to achieve by doing this? Possibly she might attempt a last gasp trip to the EU next week begging for an extension to the extension, or - having been seen to have tried and failed for a third, final time - either she will finally fall on her sword (unlikely!) or announce a two-week emergency preparation for a No Deal Brexit.

Whatever the motives behind this, the fact the government has resorted to so brazenly abusing Parliament and the wishes of the people on this of all days marks a transition to a new and ominous phase of the struggle. I genuinely dread what might happen next.

Update: 15.00. Hurrah! May's surrender has been defeated again, this time by 58 votes. As a result, the UK's cutoff date for a No Deal Brexit is now confirmed as April the 12th, unless the EU allow a further article 50 extension. No doubt this will spark yet more frenzied speculation about May resigning or being deposed, as well as the prospect of a General Election. Parliament will hold another series of Indicative Votes on Monday, April the 1st, but it isn't now their decision as to when the UK may leave the EU, but the EU27 heads of state's. Given Parliament and the government have shown themselves to be incapable of creating a roadmap out of their self-imposed problems, the case for allowing the UK an extension while we sort ourselves out weakens by the day.

Update; 18.30. Hopefully the vote result has defused the tension and the rally can disperse peacefully. The European Commission in responding to the vote have said a hard Brexit on April 12th is now the most "likely" outcome. There will be an emergency EU summit on the 10th, when it may finally be the time the UK will be told "Sorry, but..."